MAY THE ODDS BE FOREVER IN OUR FAVOUR: ARSENAL vs BAYERN MUNICH

“We have some ground to make up in Europe because we have not been at our desired level in the opening games. Our focus has been much stronger in the Premier League than the Champions League, but we know in this game our focus needs to be the same. We have belief and confidence we are doing something right. We could be a little bit suspected of not taking the first two games at the right level, of not taking opponents seriously enough.”- Arsene Wenger.

“In this situation they have an advantage because they have to win. I cannot imagine they won't fight for 90 minutes. You have to look for a way to play that situation, we have to be intelligent and control our game. I prefer our situation, though, no doubt about that; I prefer to come here with six points rather than none. But I can imagine my team with zero points at home to Arsenal – I know my team would be animals and aggressive, because it is the last chance. You have to give everything.”- Pep Guardiola.

Err… right. Tonight’s opponent is Bayern Munich. The Bundesliga champions have won all eleven of their opening Bundesliga and Champions League fixtures, scoring 37 and conceding only four, averaging 3.2 goals per game. Their current nine-match winning run is the longest winning streak witnessed at the start of a Bundesliga season. Bayern have averaged 68% possession in the Bundesliga, and 71.8% possession in their matches in all competitions. Bayern have won their last 12 competitive matches in all competitions. Bayern also defend well, keeping five clean sheets in the league and seven clean sheets in 11 matches in all competitions. They only allow the opposition 7 shots per game on average. Arsenal, by comparison, allow the opposition 11 shots per game. Bayern themselves take 18.4 shots per game, which isn’t particularly terrifying unlike other aspects of their play (we average 19.7), but they have the best shot conversion rate in the Bundesliga.

Yet this is a hole that we dug ourselves into in fairness, with our two most calamitous results so far this season coming in those defeats to Dinamo Zagreb and Olympiakos, and I won’t even dwell on those.

“The confidence level is there, we know exactly what is required. A 0-0 is not even a good result. To score goals, we have to attack.”- Arsene Wenger.

As both managers put it, the situation and the context around our Champions League campaign so far simply necessitate a result tonight. Needs must. Ideally we should be looking at ways and means of stopping Robert Lewandowski, who has scored 22 goals in just 16 games for club and country this season, and Thomas Muller, who has nine in nine Bundesliga games already. In this regard, and despite Arsene Wenger’s quote above, I expect a game similar to the 3-0 defeat of Manchester United. Scoring early will be crucial to this game plan, and as the side with no points after two games playing at home the onus will be on us to attack. Bayern only know one way to play, they’ll likely hog the ball, play it in our half and try to get Douglas Costa and Thiago Alcantara on the ball as often as possible as these are their most potent channels of attack. Costa and Thiago have combined for 11 assists so far this season; and Costa and Mario Gotze have done well in the continued absence of Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben.

Seeing as we’ll spend large portions of the game without the ball, you get the feeling that this is the sort of game which can be decided by moments rather than anything else really. Alexis Sanchez has been in inspired form, scoring ten in his last six games for club and country, and he will need to be at his absolute best tonight. Sanchez and Walcott have formed an understanding of sorts in recent weeks, with Sanchez assisting both of Theo’s goals in the Champions League and Walcott assisting Sanchez twice as well, and may well find some joy up against the CB pairing of Jerome Boateng and Javi Martinez. As a consequence of Bayern’s game they like to play a high line- you have to believe that the chance to hit them on the break will present itself. Two more players I’ll be looking at to have big games tonight are Ozil and Coquelin, they will be critical to us putting any meaningful counter-attacking moves together. It’s happened a couple of times this season already, Coquelin puts in a tackle in our own half, Cazorla/Ozil recovers possession, releases Ramsey/Sanchez and one right pass later, the ball’s in the back of the net.

Start fast, score early, control the space between the lines, nullify the threat from wide, counter-attack with pace, power and precision, and win the game. Sounds easy enough right? Hector Bellerin has faced difficult opponents down his flank, but Douglas Costa might prove to be his trickiest customer yet. With David Alaba overlapping outside him, the young Spaniard will need all the help he can get from Aaron Ramsey to cut off that particular supply chain for the irrepressible Lewandowksi.

In terms of team news, there isn’t much to report from our end save for David Ospina who will miss out through injury. Isn’t that a little convenient though? I mean, a lot of eyes would have been on Arsene Wenger’s selection in goal tonight following the omission of Petr Cech from our defeat to Olympiakos and the subsequent errors made by Ospina. Would he have gone with Ospina, the ‘keeper whom he so valiantly defended in the aftermath of that particular defeat, hence benching the club’s best goalkeeper for a game of this magnitude? Or would he have recalled Petr Cech, meaning he doesn’t trust the Colombian enough for this game? I guess we’ll never know now.

Bayern will be missing whole host of players, including Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben and Mario Gotze (smiles in glee). Douglas Costa faces a late fitness test but is expected to start anyway.

So there we are. Tonight we’ll be playing the role of Tom Cruise in the latest installment to the sequel “Mission Impossible”. Yet we have to win. May the odds be forever in our favour.

*Quotes and image from Arsenal Media*