Saturday 15 August 2015

TO BETTER BEGINNINGS: CRYSTAL PALACE vs ARSENAL

After the debacle of last weekend, tomorrow's fixture away to Crystal Palace really feels like a must-win even this early in the season. A couple of players have been in the press this week, talking about "bouncing back" and Arsene Wenger was also speaking about how our season will be defined by how we bounce back against Crystal Palace. It's all fine and all that, but it's all just rhetoric until we see a reaction on the pitch. And, to be quite honest, I believe Crystal Palace away would have been the last fixture anyone related with the Arsenal would have picked to bounce back from a demoralizing open day defeat- and with good reason too. We may have beaten the Eagles 2-1 home and away last season, but we had Aaron Ramsey to thank for a tap-in with seconds to full time, and we barely escaped from Selhurst Park with a win after Palace rallied late on, scored one and hit the post minutes later. I also found it interesting that in the four fixtures against Palace since their promotion in 2013, we've scored twice each time.

Overall, our head-to-head record against Palace is encouraging- we've won five and drawn one of our last six games against Palace, scoring 14 and conceding four, and the last time the Eagles took any points off this fixture was in a 1-1 draw back in 2004. Palace didn't have the best home record in the league last season though, winning only six and losing ten, but it's worth noting that four of those six wins came under Alan Pardew. Pardew has an admirable record overall since he took over as boss, winning 11 of his 19 games in charge, and his 57% win ratio is the best of any Crystal Palace manager to date. This despite his home record being rather indifferent, having won four and lost five of his home games in the league. Arsenal, meanwhile, won ten of their 19 away games last season and were unbeaten since February away from home- winning five and drawing one of their next six since.

On the injury front, Palace have Julian Speroni, Frazier Campbell and old boy Marouane Chamakh out. Our injury news is rather mixed: Jack Wilshere, for instance, is now expected to make a quicker recovery from his hairline fracture to his left ankle:

"Jack is back in training, I thought it would be six to eight weeks but it could be three or four weeks. He's in the second week now so he's on schedule."
There was more news with regards to Danny Welbeck, who is now three weeks away from full fitness:
"Danny Welbeck is making good progress, but is still not available."
There was to be more disappointment with Tomas Rosicky:
"Tomas has had surgery on his knee. His agent said he will be out for one or two months, but it will be longer. How long exactly, we don't know yet."
But by far the most interesting update will have been on Alexis Sanchez, have a read and laugh :-)
"He came back reasonably fit,” the manager said. “He practised for two weeks before he came back. He did not start from zero. In training now, he looks alright. I knew before the start that, once he was here, he would be difficult to stop. So I gave him a long enough break. He had four weeks off, which is quite reasonable. He finished on July 3 and he came back on August 3. He works extremely hard in every single training session to show that he is ready. I think what he does is, for me, normal. It is what everybody should do. You wonder if he has created a beach at home, and runs along the living room! He is a hyperactive guy. He needs that to be happy."
I won't even add anything to that, just read that again and again and let it sink in for a little bit. I mean, certain players in our squad returned from the last summer and suffered post-World Cup trauma well into the later stages of 2014, while others come back having trained for half of their well-earned holiday in preparation for the next season. I actually think Wenger was perhaps alluding to , when he said: "I think what he does is, for me, normal. It is what everybody should do."

In terms of the starting line-ups and tactical implications of the same, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to Arsenal. Crystal Palace, interestingly, had the least possession of any side, not just in England but in Europe's top five leagues altogether (40.2%). They also had the lowest pass completion rate (66.8%) in the league. But with the likes of Yannick Bolasie, Jason Puncheon and Wilfried Zaha in their ranks, they posses the explosive pace and firepower to match many in the league, and thus played a rather direct, counter-attacking brand of football. That being said, however, it is well worth noting that their average possession per game statistics pre-Alan Pardew (during Neil Warnock's tenure) was a paltry 37%, while this rose significantly to 48% under Pardew. The manager clearly places more value on retaining the ball, and this is can be illustrated by the possession statistics in our four games against them: in the first three, it was 60%-40%, 65%-35% and 74%-26% in our favour, but this reduced to 55%-45% when we faced them at Selhurst Park under Pardew. This belief is further affirmed by the signing of former Newcastle and PSG midfielder Yohan Cabaye. Tomorrow will therefore be a Palace side quite adept at playing on the counter, but also perhaps better placed to sustain prolonged periods of pressure on Arsenal through improved ball retention.

A lot has been made concerning our midfield balance against West Ham, and I won't delve into that here. For more reading on that subject though, kindly check out this piece I did yesterday. The only players whom you would say are nailed-on starters tomorrow are Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (based on current form), Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil... and perhaps Alexis too, because he's clearly up for it! despite having only come back from his post-Copa America break! If he does play from the start, it certainly means that either of Ramsey, Cazorla or Coquelin will have to make do with a place on the bench, and it will be interesting to see how that pans out. Hector Bellerin is also available for selection from the start, and following an indifferent showing from Mathieu Debuchy last Sunday you would think the young Spaniard will get the nod against Palace. Lastly, Olivier Giroud or Theo Walcott up front? You can actually have your say before the game by voting on this article I did for Gunners Town here.

This one won't be easy, but a defeat in another London derby this early in the season is simply unfathomable.

*Quotes adapted from Arsenal Media and BBC.*

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